MNF – Lions at Cowboys

I’m not gonna lie, i’ve had a lovely Christmas week with family being round and a cracking roast being cooked by the wife and I, however, the betting hasn’t gone quite as well, we’re about 20 pts down over the weekend, which sucks. Injuries didn’t help with a few of the anytime guys I picked leaving their games for x amount of time. Last night wasn’t much better, but then again, it was Christmas Day evening so I probably shouldn’t have gone for anything. There were interceptions in the late match last night, but none returned for scores, and the Ravens game, Dixon looked great, powerful running all game, but got nowhere near the end zone, and they went away from him when they were getting close. Kyle Juszchuk scoring from 10 yards out. Rogers and James were taken over by the three B’s when the Steelers got near scoring too. In fairness, was a brilliant match, Big Ben was garbage for 3 quarters, before pulling it out of the bag in the 4th. To send them into the playoffs.

And talking of the playoffs, they’re largely sorted now, we know the 8 teams in the AFC, The Patriots will likely be the top seed with the Raiders taking the other bye. They’re followed by the Dolphins, Chiefs, Steelers and Texans. The only thing to be decided there is who is seeded where. The NFC has a tiny bit more intrigue. The Cowboys will be the 1 seed, the Falcons probably the second seed. The others will be the Packers, Lions, Giants and Seahawks, although the Redskins and the Buccs will be hoping for a Dallas win tonight to slow down the Lions in their push. Next week will see the Packers take on the Lions for the NFC North title, and the subsequent higher seeding. Unfortunately there’s not a whole lot more at stake. Fingers crossed the Steelers will rest their entire team, and second string and the Browns will get their second win and leave the niners with the worst record on the season. Next week is historically a dodgy week, you don’t know entirely who’s going to be playing, usually the big players start the games, play a quarter or so then get rested to keep them fit. Which makes sense given what happened to Derek Carr this week.

In fact, there’s even a slight possibility that the Cowboys tonight rest Dak and Zeke instead of risking injury, given that they’ve already sorted out the no.1 seed, and homefield throughout the playoffs. They host the Lions who are desperate for the win to at least secure a playoff spot, and give them a little leeway against the Packers next weekend. Having said that, I would be surprised if those two guys don’t get to play the whole game, it’s a risk resting players, and they’ll have next week, and a bye week should they feel the need to rest these guys, also those two are rookies, obviously so they don’t have much mileage in their legs, so they should be fine to play again. Zeke especially, I can’t see staying off the field, he’s only 258 yards off setting the rookie rushing record, I can’t imagine him wanting to miss out on the chance to do beat that. Detroit are 12th in rushing yards allowed per game, averaging just under 100 yards conceded, they’ll do well to hold this OL and Zeke to less than 100 tonight, but it should at least be a bit of a challenge for him rather than a complete walkover. The Lions are middle of the pack in passing yards allowed, so the Cowboys shouldn’t have too much of an issue there, especially with Darius Slay doubtful, and Deandre Levy listed as questionable, they’re two important players to this team. The means that Dez Bryant, Cole Beasley, Terrance Williams all have a better chance than they otherwise would of done tonight. And Jason Witten is coming off a 10 catch (from 10 targets) week last week in a close match, I expect this week to stay fairly close, so he may well get play again. Interesting note, Darren McFadden was back last week, and saw a little bit of action, a very little bit… 4 touches for 8 yards, but…If they do choose to pull Zeke i’d imagine it will be him who gets the increase.

The Lions don’t have a running game to speak of, Theo Riddick is probably going to miss the game, so that means it’s Zach Zenner there again? He was 12 yards from 3 carries, and 52 from 4 catches last week, while rookie Dwayne Washington actually got more carries, although did very little with them, 31 yards from 14 attempts. That should improve tonight, but not by a lot, the Cowboys are pretty good against the run. A little mention for Joique Bell, they re-signed him recently, he already knows the play book and can’t be worse than 2yds per carry, so he MAY get a look in, there’s 10/1 around for him if you want a very long shot. The Lions will have to score to keep up with Dallas, as i’d be very surprised if they can keep stop the Cowboys from scoring. They have the players to do it, Golden Tate has become the go to guy, although every time I tip him to get over his yard target he lets me down. Marvin Jones is usually the downfield threat, although Tate has had two big plays in the last 2 games, and he can score off 1 pass if things go right for him. Anquan Boldin has had a good season as basically a tight end, he’s a big lad, and is frequently aimed for in the red zone, add to that Eric Ebron increasing his targets again and it’s a fairly good passing attack. Matt Stafford will again be wearing a glove to give his middle finger a bit of support after dislocating it a couple of weeks back, but he still put up nearly 300 yards on a solid Giants defence last Monday night.

I’m not sure what to go for here to be honest, after the weekend i’ve had, I feel I should go for shorter odds that are arguably more likely to happen, Zeke anytime at 1/2, well, there’s is one 1/2 shot i’ll go for, points to be scored in every quarter is 1/2 at Skybet, I’ll go for 8pts on that, that should (in theory) give a fairly easy 4 pt profit to go for a few longer shots. I’ll be honest, i’m looking at Matt Stafford anytime at 14/1 on bet365, it’s big odds and although unlikely, he did run one in for the win a 2 games ago, that was his only TD though which means the 14/1 odds were actually spot on. One of the Lions receivers will score a TD, and they’re all over 2/1. Tate is 2/1, Jones is 5/2 and Boldin 11/4. It’s just a case of trying to find the right guy, and given how this weekend has gone, i’m not sure I will find the right one! An honorable mention for Jason Witten o4.5 receptions at 11/10 on 365. As said, he had 10 from 10 last week…

  • Pts scored in every quarter – 1/2 (Skybet) – 8pts. 
  • Boldin anytime – 11/4 (Skybet) – 2pt
  • Dak Prescott anytime – 14/5 – 2pt
  • Cowboys by 1-13 pts – Evens (PP) – 4pts
  • Joique Bell anytime – 10/1 (365) – 1pt

Theory is that the first will land, and cover the long shot…theoretically.

I don’t think there will be much next week with the uncertainty over teams lineups and who’s going to be playing, it’s going to be a risky proposition in most games. Although Jordy Nelson anytime for the Packers will likely by the banker of the week as they’ll have to play to win. I’ll be doing my best to listen to and read all I can to find out what’s likely to happen with players, but I will definitely be advising caution next week!

Worth saying despite a frankly awful week, sorry for new followers, I do have around 100 pts profit on the year still which will more than likely be doubled next week when my David Johnson top TD scorer bet lands at 11/1, Drew Brees looks like he’ll win the passing yard, and Zeke is all but nailed on for the offensive rookie of the year. So a few of the season long bets will be paying off nicely. (Although in fairness i’ve not tallied up the losses from the other season longs, but i’ll get all that sorted once the regular season is over next week.

Good Luck if you follow anything tonight.

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