As Jay may have mentioned in his fantasy QB write up (https://touchdowntips.com/2017/01/28/under-the-hat-fantasy-2016-review-the-qb-jayhatton49/) It’s a week until the Superbowl, so there’s really not much to talk about this week for us on the blog. We’ll try and keep some content coming up over the summer, although i’m not sure what it will be, there obviously won’t be much betting advice, so i’m not sure whether people will have a read or not, but we have time on our hands, and enjoy doing a bit of writing, so well… we’ll put something out most weeks.
We’ll be keeping an eye on the draft, there’s a few markets around there, and looking into who’s picking who, there’s plenty of information out there already, and even mock drafts. Most of which have the Browns taking Myles Garrett as first pick, with Mitch Trubisky going to the niners at no.2 (Or DeShone Kizer, whichever way, everyone seems to expect they take a QB). For what it’s worth, at this very early stage, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Browns trade out for even more picks, despite the fact they have 2 inside the top 12 already, having received the Rams pick last season, although in fairness, there’s no standout QB this year, so might not be much to bother trading up for.
So with the Superbowl not until next week, get that Monday off if you haven’t already, it’s actually a fairly reasonable 2330 kick off on this side of the pond which means a 230-3 finish? Not really that bad at all… So with that in mind there’s a lot of markets out on the game already, 273 markets available on Bet365 at the moment! There will be a lot of joke markets about, you can bet on pretty much anything regarding that game. I would imagine Paddypower will have a lot of those, and Betfair seem to put up a lot of them as well, although it seems to be Skybet who have them up already. There will be markets on Lady Gaga’s half time show; what she’s wearing, the colour of her hair, how long her set is, which songs she’ll be singing (My money is on “The edge of Glory”… come on… it works, right?) the length of the national anthem, apparently 2mins 10 seconds is the golden mark there, pretty much anything about the game.
The big one for this game is obviously the Superbowl MVP. Last year it was won by Von Miller, there seems to be very little chance of it going to a defensive player this year. There will be a lot of points on show. I’d be amazed if it doesn’t go to one of the QBs, and as the Patriots are the more likely winners, your best bet is likely to be Tom Brady at 10/11 (PP). If you think the Falcons are going to win then there’s 15/8 around on Matt Ryan (Skybet). Outside of those two, if for some reason you wanted to risk someone else, then you’ll probably be looking at Julio Jones at 20/1. It would take him getting 3 TDs, one being a miraculous somersaulting one hander and 200 yards to get into the consideration over his QB though, so seems unlikely. The lowest priced defensive player is Vic Beasley and he’s the first guy who sprang to my mind as even worth a mention. He’s 80/1. Malcolm Butler is the first defensive player for the Pats, 100/1. I get the feeling he may be covering Mo Sanu, and they’ll double team Julio (more about that theory next weekend)
On to the yard markets that are already around, the one that has jumped out at me so far is Martellus Bennett receiving yards – I think they’re too high at 42.5 on Paddypower. His two post season games have been 1 for 5yds and 5 for 32yds against the Steelers last week. They’ll use him more as a blocker than a pass catcher. In fact, he’s only beaten that line 6 times this season, from 18 games, and only once in their last 9 games, against a tough Ravens defence. Against this Falcons team they’ll be able to pick their poison which, I believe, means probably more for the WRs and RBs.
If you’re looking for anytime scorers at a price. If the Pats try to take away Julio, then their secondary target will be stopping Mo Sanu. He’s scored in both their post season games. So may be worth looking for Hooper or Hardy, one of the tight ends, they’re usually at a mildly decent price 7/2 and 6/1 at the moment, although the Hardy price is a fair bit higher on Betfred than elsewhere, only around 9/2 in other places, so if you wanted a bit of him then best to act quickly. Brady to go in himself for a TD is at 10/1 on Skybet, max of 7s everywhere else. He does enjoy a 1 yd dash on occasion, so not a ridiculous way to risk your hard earned, although I won’t be going for it quite yet.
Have just seen that Austin Hooper’s yards are set to 11.5 on Skybet… That’s one catch, and 365 have a more sensible 24.5. I think i’ll be putting a few points on him beating that yardage right now before I tell the world of twitter. Although reading his recent stats may be enough to put people off.
Malcolm Mitchell receiving yards seem to be around 25 yards. If he’s fit, which he should be with another week to rest, then I would be surprised if he doesn’t beat that, he was a keep part of this offence before getting injured, and Brady trusts him.
So that’s just a quick look ahead a few of the many many prop bets about for the Superbowl. Obviously next Saturday evening we’ll be posting a full write up on the game and retweeting it throughout Sunday. Unsurprisingly we had our most views ever on the site last weekend (Big up to our readers in Mauritius, Bangladesh and Kenya!) and i’m hoping to double that this week for the big game, especially with it being broadcast on BBC as well as Sky.